Johannesburg - South Africa's foreign trade balance
with its non-Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) trading partners is expected
to have reached a R500m surplus in August from the R447m
surplus of July, according to a survey by I-Net Bridge.
A record R17.4bn deficit was set in January, but a few surprise
surpluses have been registered this year. South Africa recorded a trade surplus
of R446.758m for its trade with non-Southern African Customs Union
trading partners in July after the R3.221bn surplus of June.
South
Africa achieved its first trade surplus since 2006 of R2.020bn in
May.
Forecasts among the seven economists surveyed for August varied from a R2.0bn deficit to a R1.0bn surplus, reflecting the still
volatile nature of the trade data.
South Africa's bulk export volumes have surprised once again as they surged
29.01% year-on-year (y/y) in August from the whopping 36.82% jump in July, data
supplied by the National Ports Authority of South Africa shows.
The current recession, though, has crimped back strongly on the level of
trade, and exports are down 19.2% y/y (July data). However, the fall in imports
has exceeded this at -24.3% y/y.
Although January total foreign trade export data showed a dramatic drop of
25.3% m/m, ushering in the record trade deficit of R17.4bn, export
improvements have helped usher in surprise trade surpluses this year.
Trade with Asia is helping the country along.
Despite the global recession, South Africa's foreign trade with Asia
remains robust and China is now the number one export destination after being
fifth a year ago. It replaces the United States, which moves into second place.
Updated data from the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) shows that for
the first half of 2009, China is the number one export destination with annual
growth of a stellar 53.9%, while the US has seen an annual decrease of 42.6% in
exports. China takes 11.9% of the total market, the US 8.3% and Japan 7.5%.
In 2008, Japan, the United States, and Germany were, in descending order,
the country's top export markets according to customs data, while top import
markets were Germany, China, and the US.
China is now the biggest import market, pipping Germany, according to the
latest DTI statistics.
Trade in South Africa has picked up markedly over the past decade. In 1998
exports only added up to R144.9bn and they ended 2008 at a very
healthy R663.099bn by comparison, although an overall deficit of R64.5bn was seen.
South Africa's Customs and Excise Department is set to release the latest
foreign trade data on September 30.
- I-Net Bridge