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Amcu's senseless strike

ONCE again the platinum mine strike commands our attention. Today the strike has lasted a full three months. Neither the strikers nor the mine bosses have gained a millimeter or conceded a millimeter.

Nobody has won. But there are losers aplenty.

The strikers have lost income of R5.85bn. For poor people, this is a very big deal. No wonder Amcu, the trade union behind the strike, has appealed to the public and even to the government to help the 70 000 strikers survive this devastating strike.

A strike fund was founded, and by the Monday it contained R1m given by Amcu itself and R50 000 from the public. But, as Amcu president Joseph Mathunjwa told reporters during a press conference, this is a pittance.

The employers, however, are losing as well. The three platinum mines have lost R13bn in revenue. It is an open question whether they will survive this blow. If they do, they will need time to recover.

Most importantly, the whole of South Africa, and every single person living there, is losing. And if ordinary people do not yet feel the effects, they certainly will if the strike lasts much longer.

Experts' opinions on how seriously the strike is affecting the South African economy differ, but all agree that the results are negative. According to one estimate, the expected growth of 2.7% for 2014 now has to be adjusted to 2%.

Another states that the strike has pushed economic growth down to 0% for the first three months of this year.

There is a beautiful story about why people do things that go so clearly against their best interests. It is about a dragonfly wishing to cross a wide river, too wide for it to fly over. So it asks a hippopotamus to carry it across on its back.

“But how do I know that you won’t sting me while I am carrying you?” the hippo asks. “I will die from such a sting!”

“Don’t be daft,” the dragonfly answers. “If I sting you and you die, I will drown as well. Can you imagine me doing anything against my own interest?”

With that, the hippo was satisfied and off they went.

Half-way through, the dragonfly stung the hippo. “What have you done?” the hippo cried. “Now we both will die!”

The dragonfly shrugged and answered simply: “This is Africa, my friend.”

Of course, this story may apply to any part of the world, not just Africa. The collective madness that took hold of Europe twice in the 20th century, the ongoing killing spree in Syria or the tension around the Ukraine all testify to the fact that the dragonfly appears in all regions.

In South Africa, the famous dragonfly’s name is Amcu. While anybody with a heart in his chest has to sympathise with the plight of poor people (including mineworkers) struggling to survive, Amcu may be on a straight course for a steep precipice.

The Amcu bosses have clearly elected a strategy of all or nothing. The demand is for R12 500 per month, far above what is paid in other mining sectors.

This, of course, is not to say that other sectors are paying enough, but Amcu’s demand is clearly too high for the platinum sector to sustain.

The time for a compromise is ripe, but no such thing is in sight. And this may have two very negative implications for the trade union.

Firstly, the employers’ will to continue keeping open the mines is diminishing by the day. The day may come - and it may not be so far in the future - that the bosses decide enough is enough, cut their losses and close down some of or all the mines.

Then the strikers will be left with nothing at all, except the possibility of starvation.

In the second place, even if the mines do not close down, whatever happens Amcu’s demands will not, repeat not, be met. The problem is that the union has bet all its chips on its demands being met in full, and has hitherto refused to talk about a compromise.

The strike will end, however, in bitterness and disillusionment. And the Amcu leadership’s prestige will suffer greatly, to put it mildly. The workers’ anger will not solely be directed towards the employers, but Amcu itself will also suffer.

This is why Amcu is the proverbial dragonfly. Amcu and the platinum mine sector actually depend on each other for survival, and it does not help if they refuse to cooperate or destroy each other.

Once again, I have sympathy for the mineworkers. But one also has to be rational. In what amounts to a kind of civil war, there can be no winners.

The bosses certainly will lose, but with their bank accounts already full, they will not feel it all that much. The workers’ lives will be devastated.

And all of South Africa will receive a blow.

The strike has gone on long enough. It is time for people come to their senses and stop this nonsense now.

 - FIn24

* Leopold Scholtz is an independent political analyst who lives in Europe. Views expressed are his own.

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