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African growth powers ahead

Johannesburg - Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected at 5.5% in 2011 and just over 5.0% in 2012, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its World Economic Outlook 2011 report on Tuesday.

The IMF trimmed its economic growth forecasts for South Africa and said the economy would grow by 3.4% this year and 3.8% in 2012.
Both forecasts were down by 0.1 percentage points from those given in October. For 2011, its projection is in line with the South African Reserve Bank’s expectation.

Economic growth in the region is expected to exceed that of all other regions except developing countries in Asia, the report said.

The forecast reflects sustained strength in domestic demand in many of the region's economies, and rising global demand for commodities.

Growth in emerging and developing economies is expected to remain buoyant at 6.5% in both 2011 and 2012.

This is a slightly lower figure than the 7% growth in these economies in 2010.

By contrast, developed economies are projected to expand by just 2.5% during 2011 and 2012.

"Nevertheless, the 2011 growth projection is an upward revision of a quarter percentage point, relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook," the report said.

The upward revision is on the back of a new fiscal package passed in late 2010 in the US, which is expected to boost economic growth in 2011 by half a percent.

Similar stimulus in Japan is expected to help that country sustain a moderate recovery in 2011.

Expected higher growth in Germany has come to the rescue for the eurozone.

Financial conditions in most regions are expected to remain stable or improve in 2011.

The report warns that financial stresses are, however, expected to remain elevated in the periphery of the euro area, where market participants are still concerned about sovereign and banking risks.

 

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