Output from two countries rich in the red mineral, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), accounted for a third of global copper in 1960, before the start of a long period of decline.
But production is now growing quickly thanks to greater political stability, improved refining and exploration technology, and heavy demand from clients like China, which is pouring money into African railroads.
"The DRC and Zambia have great potential to meet the needs of China, especially if they can take care of infrastructure constraints," said Julian Ford, managing director of Zambezi Resources, which has several exploration projects in Zambia. The pre-feasibility study for its Cheowa project is expected by June and the company has built the biggest exploration team in Africa.
Copper shipped by Zambia and the DRC has more than doubled since 2000 to about 800 ,000 tonnes a year, and estimates say it should climb to 1.5 million tonnes in 2010.
Right now, Africa trails South American countries that lead production. Chile is the world's top producer, with annual copper output last year of about 5.588 million tonnes, followed by Peru.
Zambia is the bigger producer of the two countries, but investors have pushed into the DRC since multi-party elections were held there in 2006.
Both nations are known to have vast, high-grade copper deposits, but in the past political storms in the region have hurt investments.
"One of the biggest variables right now for long-term copper supply is the DRC and Zambia," Ford said. "One question is if there will be enough stability to ensure big investments," he said at the CESCO/CRU copper conference in Chile.
Electricity and transportation are big challenges.
Recent power shortages in South Africa caused rolling blackouts in neighboring countries belonging to an energy sharing pool, and roads and railroads are overburdened or need upgrading so product from the deep interior can reach sea ports, he said.
More power would require more generation plants and investments, which could drive up costs for poor, retail consumers and be politically thorny.
"To meet mine needs, capacity must be raised but that could lead to higher prices, which can be unpopular," Ford said.
Sometimes more than one government is involved.
"When you have cross-national issues it takes time to sort these things out," he said.
Large, global companies are operating mines in Africa and increasingly looking to secure new deposits by partnering with junior companies to meet heavy demand and reap the benefits of high prices.
"The hook that's in there for investors is that if you get enough resources somebody will take you out (buy you) for $1bn," he said.
- Reuters