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Johannesburg - The African National Congress kicked out its youth league leader Julius Malema for five years on Thursday after finding him guilty of sowing division in the party.
Malema, who had been pushing for nationalisation of the country's mines, is expected to appeal against the sentence, which was harsher than analysts had expected.
Independent political analyst Nic Borain said: "This is obviously good for the ANC - for its image, for its internal coherence and for the reputation of its leadership.
"The loutish and grandiose behaviour of the ANC Youth League and the individual leaders’ involvement in looting the public sector behind a facade of representing the interest of the poorest and most marginalised has deeply damaged the reputation and core values of the ANC.
“Much will depend on whether the leadership has the stomach and spine to follow the disciplinary process with a thorough implementation of the sentence throughout all forums of the organisation. We shouldn’t forget that important individuals and constituencies have backed Malema through this process.
“Will the sentence provoke a backlash, attempting to build opposition by portraying Malema as a victim? It is obviously possible, but most observers are hoping that the grave tones and thorough approach of the ANC Disciplinary Committee might presage a process of repair and renewal in the ruling party.”
Said Anne Fruhauf, Africa analyst at Eurasia Group: “The ruling doesn’t directly tackle the nationalisation issue. But it will be viewed as a signal that the most vocal proponent of nationalisation has been cut down to size.
"The youth league doesn’t dictate policy, but Malema's tireless lobbying within the party and on the streets has caused great anxiety among investors.
“In our view, the nationalisation debate will become a little more muted if Malema’s influence wanes. But one thing is clear: nationalisation is not off the agenda and will feature at the ANC’s 2012 policy conference.
“We still don’t expect the ANC to endorse anything like the youth league’s demand for 60% state equity and constitutional amendments to expropriation clauses. But there seems to be clear consensus around the need for more redistribution.
“This won’t be a worst-case outcome, but this is not good news for investors, because many already consider the current policy regime to be onerous.
“The succession battles have been so bitter that they will leave the ANC even more divided. The run-up to Mangaung won’t be plain sailing for Zuma, especially if Malema can drag out the looming appeal against his sentence and refuses to relinquish his leadership of the youth league.”
