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Cape Town - South Africa's major cities are locked into a battle, with the spoils of economic victory going to those who attract more tourists, writes Rob Baker in SouthAfrica.TO.
Just like in a real war, there are lives at stake. The battle involves attracting more tourists to your city - if you lose tourists to other cities, this means fewer jobs. And not having a job in South Africa may cost lives, from both starvation and when the desperate resort to crime.
Air traffic up 1%
As a whole, arrivals at South Africa's airports in January and February 2014 are 1.3% up over the same two months in 2013. Coincidentally, this is the same as South Africa's population growth rate of 1.3% (economic growth equal to population growth means that gross domestic capital per capita is static).
Life is happier in a booming town
Life is far tougher in a city which is on the decline. On the other hand, get more people flying into your city and you will sell more of your produce to them, meaning less unemployment and it generally being a happier place to live.
Flight traffic isn't the be-all and end-all, as there is plenty of overland tourism occurring; however, the statistics for that aren't as readily available, so passenger arrival statistics are the most recent indicator of what we know about the health of tourism.
Air travellers are generally wealthier than overland travellers.
Weak rand is helping
This is not a zero sum game for South Africa, as it's possible for air traffic to increase as a result of more overseas traffic, rather than South African domestic tourists choosing one city over another.
Indeed, air traffic from international and regional flights is up 4%, compared to the 1% total average increase. While South African Airways (SAA) has pulled back from certain intercontinental routes, it's been steadily increasing its regional routes, which have also been boosted by the likes of fastjet starting operations to South Africa.
Air traffic to Northern Cape increasing strongly
- Upington is up 20%. This is entirely due to an increase in domestic scheduled flights (unscheduled flights are down). It's also not a recent trend - there's been a strong increase in air traffic to Upington since 2010. So, we can't attribute it only to the introduction of flights by Phakalane Airways in January 2014. The main airline operating Upington flights is SA Airlink.
- Kimberley is up 10%. Like Upington, Kimberley has seen its air traffic increasing since 2010. The more recent increases are easier to explain, as SA Airlink launched flights from Johannesburg to Kimberley in November 2013, in competition to SA Express, bringing more capacity to the route.
Iron ore mining activity in the Kathu region of the Northern Cape has been booming. Kathu is equidistant between Kimberley and Upington, and this has probably contributed to the increase in air traffic.
George's gain is PE's loss?
George has been one of the big beneficiaries of recent skirmishes in the air travel industry, with Mango Airlines commencing flights from Johannesburg to George in competition to Kulula Airlines and SA Express taking on Airlink on the Cape Town to George flight route. The additional capacity brought on by the new airlines is reflected in the 14% increase in air traffic to George.
On the other hand, air traffic to Port Elizabeth has fallen by 6%. It's only 338km from George to PE, and it's entirely possible that those wanting to travel to the plethora of holiday spots in between the two cities may have shifted to flying to George, as a result of the better pricing power brought on by the increased competition.
A new dymanic on the garden route is FlyCemair launching flights from Johannesburg and Cape Town to Plettenberg Bay on the March 28 2014. This won't be in the numbers yet, but is likely to take air traffic from both George as well as PE.
East London growing strongly
East London has been doing well since it regained a budget airline in the form of Kulula Airlines (when 1time went bankrupt for a while it had no low cost carrier serving it). However, Kulula only flies the OR Tambo to East London route, and Cape Town to East London is probably the busiest flight route in South Africa without a budget airline.
Nevertheless, we have still seen a very strong 11% growth in air traffic to East London.
Why is Durban down 3%?
One of the big mysteries is why Durban air traffic has dropped. International flights are booming, with an increase of 22%, but this forms a far small percentage of flight traffic than at OR Tambo (50%) and Cape Town (24%); and leaves the 4% fall in domestic flights unexplained.
Because the distance between Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal is shorter than that between Gauteng and Cape Town, it's possible that the spike in flight prices has resulted in travellers substituting air travel for overland travel.
- Fin24
Rob Baker is co-owner of South Africa Travel Online. Follow him on twitter on @southafricaTO.
Just like in a real war, there are lives at stake. The battle involves attracting more tourists to your city - if you lose tourists to other cities, this means fewer jobs. And not having a job in South Africa may cost lives, from both starvation and when the desperate resort to crime.
Air traffic up 1%
As a whole, arrivals at South Africa's airports in January and February 2014 are 1.3% up over the same two months in 2013. Coincidentally, this is the same as South Africa's population growth rate of 1.3% (economic growth equal to population growth means that gross domestic capital per capita is static).
Life is happier in a booming town
Life is far tougher in a city which is on the decline. On the other hand, get more people flying into your city and you will sell more of your produce to them, meaning less unemployment and it generally being a happier place to live.
Flight traffic isn't the be-all and end-all, as there is plenty of overland tourism occurring; however, the statistics for that aren't as readily available, so passenger arrival statistics are the most recent indicator of what we know about the health of tourism.
Air travellers are generally wealthier than overland travellers.
Weak rand is helping
This is not a zero sum game for South Africa, as it's possible for air traffic to increase as a result of more overseas traffic, rather than South African domestic tourists choosing one city over another.
Indeed, air traffic from international and regional flights is up 4%, compared to the 1% total average increase. While South African Airways (SAA) has pulled back from certain intercontinental routes, it's been steadily increasing its regional routes, which have also been boosted by the likes of fastjet starting operations to South Africa.
Air traffic to Northern Cape increasing strongly
- Upington is up 20%. This is entirely due to an increase in domestic scheduled flights (unscheduled flights are down). It's also not a recent trend - there's been a strong increase in air traffic to Upington since 2010. So, we can't attribute it only to the introduction of flights by Phakalane Airways in January 2014. The main airline operating Upington flights is SA Airlink.
- Kimberley is up 10%. Like Upington, Kimberley has seen its air traffic increasing since 2010. The more recent increases are easier to explain, as SA Airlink launched flights from Johannesburg to Kimberley in November 2013, in competition to SA Express, bringing more capacity to the route.
Iron ore mining activity in the Kathu region of the Northern Cape has been booming. Kathu is equidistant between Kimberley and Upington, and this has probably contributed to the increase in air traffic.
George's gain is PE's loss?
George has been one of the big beneficiaries of recent skirmishes in the air travel industry, with Mango Airlines commencing flights from Johannesburg to George in competition to Kulula Airlines and SA Express taking on Airlink on the Cape Town to George flight route. The additional capacity brought on by the new airlines is reflected in the 14% increase in air traffic to George.
On the other hand, air traffic to Port Elizabeth has fallen by 6%. It's only 338km from George to PE, and it's entirely possible that those wanting to travel to the plethora of holiday spots in between the two cities may have shifted to flying to George, as a result of the better pricing power brought on by the increased competition.
A new dymanic on the garden route is FlyCemair launching flights from Johannesburg and Cape Town to Plettenberg Bay on the March 28 2014. This won't be in the numbers yet, but is likely to take air traffic from both George as well as PE.
East London growing strongly
East London has been doing well since it regained a budget airline in the form of Kulula Airlines (when 1time went bankrupt for a while it had no low cost carrier serving it). However, Kulula only flies the OR Tambo to East London route, and Cape Town to East London is probably the busiest flight route in South Africa without a budget airline.
Nevertheless, we have still seen a very strong 11% growth in air traffic to East London.
Why is Durban down 3%?
One of the big mysteries is why Durban air traffic has dropped. International flights are booming, with an increase of 22%, but this forms a far small percentage of flight traffic than at OR Tambo (50%) and Cape Town (24%); and leaves the 4% fall in domestic flights unexplained.
Because the distance between Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal is shorter than that between Gauteng and Cape Town, it's possible that the spike in flight prices has resulted in travellers substituting air travel for overland travel.
- Fin24
Rob Baker is co-owner of South Africa Travel Online. Follow him on twitter on @southafricaTO.
