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Weakness in trade growth ahead

Cape Town - Growth in air freight markets remains weak despite a small improvement in June, according to the latest report by the International Air Transport Association (Iata).

Global air freight tonne kilometers (FTK) were 1.2% higher in June compared to a year ago, slightly up on growth in May of 0.9% and above the virtually flat growth year-to-date.

There was an improvement of 0.8% in air freight volumes in June compared to May.

"The rise in FTK volumes over the month of June suggests a positive break in the flat growth trend the past 18 months, but it is too early to say growth is accelerating," according to Iata.

Key air freight drivers remain weak as business confidence is flat and export orders are declining.

The strongest improvements in business confidence are now occurring in several developed economies and European airlines carried 25% of the June uptick in FTKs.
 
"Given that the Eurozone remains in recession, the improvement rests on fragile grounds though," according to the report.

By contrast Asia Pacific, the major air freight market, has seen weak growth with the largest year-to-date contraction (2.3%).

China’s slower than expected growth appears to be having an impact on neighboring economies and there have been further falls in Chinese export orders.
 
Air freight load factors remain at weak levels and despite the improvement in volumes over the month, capacity increased at a stronger rate.

This was mostly through passenger aircraft with belly hold capacity driving seasonally adjusted load factors down further.

Middle Eastern airlines continue to show the strongest rates of increase in air freight volumes and also carried 30% of the increase in air freight volumes in June compared to May.

Being the geographic junction between Asia,Europe and Africa, the region acts as a hub and major re-export center.

African airlines recorded relatively slower growth in June, up 2.4% on a year ago. For the first six months of 2012 they have experienced solid expansion of 4.3% - the second highest among all regions.

Unlike global air freight markets, airlines in Africa have seen continually steady growth in FTKs over the past two years.

With economic growth in some African nations tracking at the fastest rates globally, demand for high-value light-weight consumer goods is on the rise.

"Signs of stability in the Eurozone are helpful, but recent declines in export orders signal weakness in trade growth ahead," said Iata.

"As a result, the outlook for air freight markets in the second half of 2013 remains fragile."

- Fin24

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