Share

Travel in 2014

THOSE who think 2014 is going to be a quiet year are sorely mistaken - it is going to be far more interesting than 2013.

That's not to say that last year had no action: we had court battles between Comair and FlySafair, Mango and Kulula filling up the gap left by 1time on the Port Elizabeth and East London routes, and SA Airlink and SA Express slugging it out on the secondary routes.

Looking into my shadowy crystal ball, I see a number of things happening in 2014 in South Africa for flights, cruises and car hire.

1. Let's start with some good news: flight price inflation in South Africa will be lower than what was experienced in 2012 (34%) and 2013 (20%).

2. The bad news for those with sea legs is that cruise prices are going to be far higher, and there'll be a severe reduction in capacity in the cruise industry.

With MSC Cruises only sending one ship in the 2014/2015 cruise season (the MSC Opera), the reduction in capacity is likely to cause cruise fares to spike.

3. Car rental prices are also going to increase, and by more than the overall rate of consumer price inflation. Sorry!

4. By the end of 2014, we'll have two new airlines in our skies. This is most likely to be Skywise and FlySafair. Comair will again try to prevent FlySafair from flying, but this time they'll lose the court battle (FlySafair have restructured and their house is in order now).

There is the possibility of Pak Africa Aviation resuscitating 1time, or fastjet starting operations (they want in, but are struggling to get around our anti-competitive legislation which requires 75% South African ownership to operate in SA).

5. Within 24 months of the two new airlines being up and running, one airline will go into liquidation. We've seen before that we don't have a market for low-cost carriers in South Africa, and we'll see it again.

Please folks, pay for flights with your credit cards to avoid being a victim of this.

6. International tourism, in the form of those flying to South Africa, will continue to grow.

7. Comair, who run the Kulula and British Airways brands in South Africa, is going to report large profits for its financial year ending June 30 2014. This will also be a watershed year for Comair, after which profits will be hit by the new airlines.

The timing of the arrival of Comair's four new B737s in 2015 may be unfortunate (for the airline, it will be great for consumers), if it coincides with a period of heightened competition.

8. Mango Airlines will start a new flight route in 2014, probably a regional route into an African country outside South Africa.

9. Kulula Airlines won't start a new flight route in 2014, unless it's the Cape Town to East London flight route, which is the least served of the major flight routes in South Africa (the busiest route which only has one airline flying it, SA Express).

They'll have to reduce capacity on another route if they want to start a new route, as their new planes are only due for delivery in 2015.

10. Kulula will be involved in a controversial advertising campaign.

11. There will be an air crash somewhere in the world. Sorry, but the statistics say that on average this will happen. (I don't want to jinx it, but let's just hope it's not South Africa's turn.)

12. There will also be an accident involving a coach bus in South Africa.

13. A politician will be involved in a a travel-related scandal.

14. The state-owned carriers, South African Airways and SA Express are going to report losses again (however, SAA will report an increase in passenger volumes).

SA Express and SA Airlink will both suffer financially from the price war they started towards the end of 2013 (e g on Cape Town to George and Johannesburg to Bloemfontein flight routes).

15. Mango Airlines will run the most flight specials of all airlines in 2014, and on average offer the cheapest airfares.

16. SAA will continue racking up codeshare agreements.

17. South African Airways will win an award for being the best airline in Africa.

18. The option introduced in December to allow SAA Voyager miles to pay for Mango Airlines flights will be popular and successful.

19. SA Express/SA Airlink will stop flying some of their loss-making routes.

20. Somebody will give birth on a plane somewhere in the world. I'll stick my neck out, and bet that it will be a female too.

21. In social media: airlines and travel organisations which have previously been fixated on Facebook will give increased attention to establishing a presence on Google/+.

22. In the period from December 25 2014 to January 1 2015, we'll run out of minivan vehicles for hire. OK, it doesn't take a genius to predict this one, but I thought I'd let you know anyway so that you hire yours well in advance.

There's huge demand for Toyota Quantums, VW Kombi s and Hyundai H1 s in this period, particularly in the coastal cities. Car rental companies don't want to increase their fleets for demand that lasts only six days. Maybe it's time that we started taking seriously online schemes for individuals to rent out their vehicles, so that this period is properly covered.

23. Mango and Kulula are going to enter a codeshare agreement, and Kulula will change their colours from green to orange. OK, I'm kidding, that's never going to happen (I told you there were only 22 predictions).

 - Fin24

*This article first appeared in South Africa Travel Online. Rob Baker is co-owner of South Africa Travel Online. Follow him on twitter on @southafricaTO






We live in a world where facts and fiction get blurred
Who we choose to trust can have a profound impact on our lives. Join thousands of devoted South Africans who look to News24 to bring them news they can trust every day. As we celebrate 25 years, become a News24 subscriber as we strive to keep you informed, inspired and empowered.
Join News24 today
heading
description
username
Show Comments ()
Rand - Dollar
18.90
+0.2%
Rand - Pound
23.85
+0.2%
Rand - Euro
20.38
+0.3%
Rand - Aus dollar
12.31
+0.2%
Rand - Yen
0.12
+0.2%
Platinum
908.05
0.0%
Palladium
1,014.94
0.0%
Gold
2,232.75
-0.0%
Silver
24.95
-0.1%
Brent Crude
87.00
+1.8%
Top 40
68,346
0.0%
All Share
74,536
0.0%
Resource 10
57,251
0.0%
Industrial 25
103,936
0.0%
Financial 15
16,502
0.0%
All JSE data delayed by at least 15 minutes Iress logo
Company Snapshot
Editorial feedback and complaints

Contact the public editor with feedback for our journalists, complaints, queries or suggestions about articles on News24.

LEARN MORE
Government tenders

Find public sector tender opportunities in South Africa here.

Government tenders
This portal provides access to information on all tenders made by all public sector organisations in all spheres of government.
Browse tenders