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Cape Town - The swine flu epidemic could be a shot in the arm for the pharmaceutical sector, but the impact on South African pharmaceutical manufacturers and the economy will largely depend on the number of people that succumb.
Economist Mike Schüssler from economists.co.za, said Singapore's gross domestic product grew an annualised 18% in the second quarter of this year - owing to the country's production of the drug Tamiflu.
"It's however difficult to predict the effect on the South African economy. The more people that fall ill, the bigger the effect. It could possibly give the pharmaceutical sector as well as other medical industries, such as doctors and hospitals, a boost," said Schüssler.
Internationally two drugs are being used to treat the H1N1-virus - Tamiflu, which is manufactured by Roche, and Ralenza from GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). The South African pharmaceutical manufacturer Cipla Medpro should also benefit from the local incidence of swine flu. The company's generic Tamiflu drug, Cipla Oseltamivir, reached the shelves in April and first deliveries sold out shortly after arrival.
According to Cipla chief executive Jerome Smith, the company has sufficient stock to meet the burgeoning demand.
Warrick Lucas, a senior investment analyst at Imara SP Reid, said GSK's drug, Relenza, still seems to be the most effective treatment for swine flu, while Tamiflu has had a measure of success.
"The advantage that Cipla Medpro will derive will depend on the volumes sold," he said.
GSK is expecting massive growth thanks to Relenza, after recording sales of $98.4m in the second quarter of this year, compared with $4.9m over the same period in 2008.
Dr Vikash Salig, chief executive of Dr Reddy's Laboratories SA, and member of the executive committee of the National Association of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers, observed that it should be kept in mind that swine flu does not differ much from ordinary flu.
"People have died of it, but the death rate does differ greatly from that of ordinary flu."
According to Salig, sales of antiviral drugs to treat the H1N1 virus should rise during an epidemic.
"It's also possible that sales of general pharmaceutical products for the treatment of flu symptoms such as throat infections, fever and pain, as well as antibiotics, will increase."
Mike Harvey, managing director of Clicks, the country's largest retail pharmacy chain, says an epidemic can certainly boost pharmacies' sales.
"But the pharmacist's most important function is to educate.People must be taught how to treat their symptoms and avoid infection by, for example, washing their hands properly."
-Sake24
