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Squinting at the sun

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A BIG red number '37' flashes on the website of aviation wannabe Sunair Holdings - depicting the countdown of days before the Milnerton-based group lists on a "main board".

Exactly which main board on which stock exchange we do not know at this juncture. Significantly, Sunair's website still flags the logo of the London-based Plus Markets, an independent trading platform that was earlier proposed as a possible listing venue.

I note that the Plus Markets has a "secondary" and "primary" board, which may well explain Sunair's reference to a "main board" listing.

But the curt listing notice placed on Sunair's website on Friday certainly got the tongues wagging. If it was Sunair's intention to make a little news go a long way then the company's marketing team certainly succeeded.

While a good deal of excitement has no doubt been stirred in investments circles (especially Sunair's shareholder base), I still tend to cynically ponder developments.

Stepping back from Sunair for a moment, I feel it necessary to refer readers to the poor record on small, fledgling unlisted companies in converting planned listings into actual listings.

So many unlisted ventures dangle a loose worded listing in front of shareholders (especially while fund raising efforts are underway), but never manage to follow through on these plans with too much vigour. Supertow International, APMI Holdings, Wealth 4 U Mining & Exploration and Garek are a few prominent cases in point.

In this regard I do note that Sunair's latest announcement makes reference to a "projected" listing date of September 1 2008 - which seems to suggest there may be some leeway in the actual date of listing.

Mysterious company

The actual listing day is rather important because one presumes that at least 30 days before listing Sunair will need to issue either a prospectus or pre-listing documentation.

Such publications will finally give the public insight into the inner workings of what until now has been a rather mysterious company.

What we do know so far is that the directors behind Sunair include a former rugby coach, a former insurance broker, a former estate agent, a property valuer and a professional soldier. Where the aviation expertise comes from I do not know...

Officially (at least according to Sunair's website) the Sunair Group "will encompass an International Airline Operating Company (Passenger and Cargo), an Aircraft Maintenance Organisation, an Airline Ground Handling Organization, an Aviation Training Academy and an Asset Company."

I have emphasised the word "will" because aviation industry sources are not yet aware of Sunair's presence in the industry.

There's a lot of marketing guff on Sunair's website, and the only tangible transcript I could find was that Sunair concluded a BEE agreement with Molo-Moya, a country-wide group of prominent black South Africans (represented by SA Defence Force Inspector General Mxolisi Petane).

To date Fin24.com has been unable to garner financial statements from Sunair, even though the company was incorporated in 2005 and has been raising funds from the public.

It has also been impossible to establish just how much money has been raised from the public, and how these funds have been mobilised. Last time we looked Sunair had made two rather uninspiring acquisitions of a car rental brokerage firm and a travel agency.

Fundamentally speaking, Sunair could not have chosen a tougher time to attempt to list its shares. The aviation industry worldwide - especially smaller, low cost carriers - are reeling from soaring operating costs courtesy the markedly higher fuel costs.

Lost altitude

The share prices of Comair and 1Time - two locally listed aviation stocks - have lost a good deal of altitude in the last six months. Nationwide was grounded, and liquidators are looking for a buyer for the operating assets.

Local aviation expert Linden Birns told me on the weekend that any new aviation company would need "piles of cash behind them" to operate in the current environment.

Unless Sunair - which as far as I can ascertain is still without an aircraft - is going to raise a huge pile of cash to be able to afford a new aircraft fleet, there will be cost concerns.

Sunair has hinted at buying a new aircraft, noting on its website that "we have had a very open and informative initial meeting with a director of The Boeing Company, Seattle and a director of Boeing International Corporation, South Africa"

But a new Boeing will cost between $50m (R375m) to $200m (R1.5bn), and that is an awfully large amount of capital for a start-up company to raise.

Birns explained to me that the only "second-hand" aircraft currently available for sale are the fleets retired by the US majors. These second generation aircraft were retired because they were rather costly to operate.

No doubt Sunair would be able to get such aircraft at a song, but whether such assets could be profitably sweated on long haul flights between Cape Town and London is another story entirely.

There are so many things to mull at Sunair, which will make the group's strategic vision and financial projections very interesting reading.

Such important detail - which can only be days away - is keenly awaited.

- Fin24.com

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