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Cape Town - The chairperson of investment holdings group Remgro, Johann Rupert, continued to exude a cautious air on the global economy at the company's annual general meeting in Stellenbosch on Monday.
Rupert was one of the few big-hitting business personalities to anticipate the subprime global meltdown well before it transpired (and was dubbed "Rupert the Bear" for his troubles).
Rupert told shareholders he was not convinced the current rally in stock markets was "for real".
He urged caution, noting that debates around the economy were characterised by strongly divergent views.
"I have never before seen so many highly intelligent people disagreeing with strong and cogent arguments. It's got to mean a period of uncertainty," he said.
Rupert reiterated his previous conviction that SA remained relatively insulated against what had transpired in other world economies.
He pointed out that SA's government finances were in a fine state and the country's banks - along with those in Canada - ranked among the best in the world.
But Rupert noted that the quantitative easing in the US and Europe was astounding. "We have never been here before; it's experimental."
Referring to the enormous bail-outs of banks and financial institutions, Rupert said Karl Marx was right when he said "banks privatise profits and socialised losses".
He said banks were using the trillions of bail-out dollars to clean up their balance sheets rather than extending these funds to clients.
"The money is lying there in a neutered state. Once banks start using these funds, we could have one of the biggest inflations ever."
Rupert said state financial heads would have to make a decision on whether to raise interest rates to calm inflation.
However, he believed growth was the only real way to pull world economies out of the current debt trap.
"Growth leads to more taxable income. But there's not a single government that is pro-growth; instead it's tax and spending."
Rupert said at this point it was best to forget about past excesses in the markets. "I don't know where we are going, but what I can safely say is that the past 20 years are gone."
- Fin24.com