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Cape Town - Although the latest 25 basis points interest rate hike by the SA Reserve Bank (Sarb) is not large in itself, it is the third increase in little over a year and when one factors in the 8% to 11% increase in transfer fees imposed to swell government coffers, it puts immense strain on the housing market, according to Lew Geffen, chair of Lew Geffen Sotheby’s International Realty.
“There is also a knock-on effect for consumers. The South African economy is stagnant; the currency is under enormous pressure; we're facing the prospect of having to import staple food stuffs for the first time in nearly a decade and electricity prices will continue to rise at a rate far above inflation," said Geffen.
“We are already seeing growing debt defaults and the irrational exuberance that prevailed in the property market previously has calmed down to just exuberance."
He expects house prices to continue to rise in 2016 - driven largely by stock shortages - but not at 2013/2014 rates.
Home owners
"We’re likely to see year-on-year price increases slowing to around the rate of inflation from the 8% to 10% we’ve been seeing in recent years. Sellers need to curb their expectations and with more rates hikes in the offing, 2016 will not be an easy year for home owners,” cautioned Geffen.
Seeff chair Samuel Seeff regards the latest hike is poorly timed.
"In view of the poor economic performance, a hold on the rate would have been a vital boost for the festive season...an important period for the retail sector. The MPC could then have hiked the rate at their next meeting at the end of January," said Seeff.
The hike means that a homeowner with a 20-year housing loan of around R1m will now see their monthly repayment increase from about R9 787 to R9 959.
"We do not expect the economic weakening to have any serious impact on the housing market beyond an already expected tapering off of volumes. Save for any serious disasters, we are expecting it to be business as usual for the market next year."
READ: 6 graphs that led Sarb to increase repo rate
Dr Andrew Golding, CEO of Pam Golding Property Group, said a stable repo rate would have sent a positive signal to South Africa’s housing market, which despite ongoing economic headwinds, continues to experience sustained demand which in many key nodes and metros exceeds the supply, resulting in ongoing stock shortages.
"With municipal tariffs such as rates, electricity and water receiving increasing attention, we anticipate as the new year unfolds the trend towards the containment of such costs. Conservation of our precious natural resources will further stimulate the growing demand for convenient sectional title living and use of energy saving features," said Golding.
"Although generally smaller in size, although not necessarily cheaper, sectional title offers low overheads and improved security. This is coupled with the growing trend towards urban living in proximity to the workplace."
READ: Increasing demand for sectional title properties
PGP's outlook for the remainder of 2015 and into 2016 is that the current supply and demand environment will continue to prevail, notwithstanding the weakness in the economy.
Commercial property
Commercial property investors will be negatively affected due to a decrease in consumer spending, which will impact them directly if they are trading from the property, or indirectly if their tenants suffer as a result of the interest rate increase, said Attie Anderson, head of business lending at FNB Property Finance.
Moreover, this could lead to tenant vacancies or rental arrears and may even force investors to reduce their rent in order to prevent tenants from vacating and seeking more affordable rentals.
"Commercial property investors that experience cash flow strains should approach their banks for financial assistance. This will give the bank an opportunity to assess the situation and perhaps find alternative repayment solutions, rather than follow the undesirable route of foreclosure in cases of default," advised Anderson.
