Johannesburg - Next year will be an even worse year for the housing market than 2011. It might improve only in 2013.
expect that house price growth will further level out, largely as a
result of the still-high indebtedness of households and a lack of
stimulus since 2009.
National Bank property analyst John Loos says that at this stage there
is little on the horizon to indicate better house prices next year.
says that last year house prices rose at an annualised rate of 6.1% for
the full year and the expectation is that this year's growth rate will
around 3%. For next year he expects growth of between 1% and 2% for the
year as a whole.
Loos reckons that next year interest rates could be lowered by a half
to one percentage point, he does not believe that this would have a
significant effect on the housing market.
the housing market's long-term health it is important for households'
debt-to-disposable-income ratio to improve significantly.” In the third
quarter of this year this figure improved to 75% from 75.8% in the
second quarter, but he says it needs to come down to below 70%. He
believes this will not happen next year, but only in 2013.
Gilmour, the chairperson of Re/Max Southern Africa, expects that
financial institutions' risk appetite will improve in 2012, although
of between 10% and 30% will remain a reality for those wanting to buy a
says that financial institutions have relaxed their lending criteria
slightly over the past year to a point where almost 50% of all
for home loans are approved. This is a distinct improvement on the 26%
being approved in April 2009, but far from the 80% approval rate in the
heyday of 2007, he says.
Everitt, managing director of property group Chas Everitt, says
prospective homebuyers should keep in mind that a larger deposit has
If one buys a house costing, for instance, R800 000 with a 12% deposit,
at the current prime lending rate of 9% the loan will be R704 000 and
the monthly instalments just over R6 300.
said the loan for a buyer putting down an 18% deposit will be only R656
000 and his monthly instalments less than R6 000. Should the buyer
pay an additional R300 a month off on the capital, he will pay off the
loan two years earlier and save around R108 000 in interest.