Cape Town - Prepare for a period of sustained low oil prices if there is no intervention in the industry, Dr Tony Hayward, chair of Genel Energy and chair of Glencore Xstrata said on Tuesday.
He was one of the opening speakers at the 22nd Africa Oil Week taking place in Cape Town.
"Without intervention the market is likely to take about 18 months to clear," said Hayward.
In his view the Saudi strategy of going head to head with high cost producers is working.
One sign is the number of oil rigs active in the world that has fallen. At the same time the low oil price has actually increased consumer demand in 2015 compared to 2014.
In his view Iran is one wildcard to watch in the industry. He thinks it is likely that Iran will be "back in the market" in the first half of 2016. Libya is the other wild card in his view, able to export much more oil "if it gets its act together".
As for the oil industry in Africa, Hayward said even without the impact of the low oil price the industry has not been a great success on the continent.
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"Vast amounts have been invested and billions of dollars spent on explorations, but with a decade bringing only limited success. It is, therefore, time for the industry and governments in Africa to take stock as capital markets are effectively closed for the oil market," said Hayward.
"Survival has become the name of the game. It is time for African governments to be realistic in their demands and flexible in how they deal with the oil industry. The most important is for governments to be efficient in their decision making in order to lead to oil production."
Hayward said oil prices are bound to recover as $50 a barrel will not sustain the industry for the oil the world needs.
"We are sowing the seeds for the next oil bull market, I believe. A period of low oil is always a time when the industry resets government expectations and demands and create opportunities for more co-operation with role players and also among role players themselves," he said.
"In the past low oil prices have always ushered in new eras of co-operation.