Johannesburg/Mumbai - Drug company Cipla Medpro South Africa [JSE:CMP] is
expected to demand more than the $215m on offer from Indian suitor Cipla Ltd to
reflect a lucrative government contract win that will increase its earnings
But the board of South Africa's No. 3 drug company should
tread carefully in raising the stakes in this takeover deal because Cipla Ltd
provides the bulk of the drugs it sells.
Cipla Ltd is to offer R8.55 per share for a 51% stake in
Cipla Medpro. The Indian group supplies drugs to the Cape Town-based company,
but has never owned a stake.
"It would be prudent for Cipla Medpro's board to go
back to Cipla Ltd and try a get a better deal to reflect this contract
win," said one banker, not involved in the process.
The Johannesburg stock market is already betting on a
sweetened offer from the Indian firm, which has the second largest share of
India's $13bn drug sector.
Cipla Medpro shares are about 4% above Cipla's proposed
R8.55 offer price.
The Indian company's so-called "south-south"
takeover bid shows the attractions of South Africa's high-growth markets and
rising population for drug companies focused on low-priced medicines that are
The deal would give Cipla Ltd more clout in South Africa,
where the government is introducing a national health insurance plan heavily
reliant on the use of generic drugs.
Cipla swooped in November when Cipla Medpro was under a
cloud after chief executive Jerome Smith quit following allegations of awarding
payouts without board approval.
Its shares were then about R7.7 each, putting Cipla's offer
at a premium of about 11%.
Analysts and industry rivals said Cipla Ltd's price was
"opportunistic" in the wake of the CEO scandal.
"Given the inherent prospects of the business, I don't
think Cipla Ltd would get 51% at this price, they are going to have to offer
more," said Anthony Clark, an analyst at Vunani Securities.
Just days after Cipla's bid proposal, Cipla Medpro was
awarded a R1.4bn share of a $667m government two-year contract to supply of
HIV/AIDS drugs to public hospitals.
Analysts estimate Cipla Ltd stands to get revenues of $30m -
$40m annually from the contract if it gains control of Cipla Medpro.
But some analysts said Cipla Medpro cannot afford to get too
tough over the bid price because the company relies so heavily on the Indian
firm's commitment to supply the bulk of its medicines.
The supply deal was spearheaded by Smith, the former CEO and
founder of the company. There had been speculation Smith's departure could
affect Cipla Medpro's relationship with Cipla.
The success of the takeover would remove these doubts
and cement the relationship.
"Cipla Medpro is worth more with a 51% shareholding, as
it reduces the market's concerns regarding the sustainability of the supply
agreement," said Mathew Menezes, an analyst at Avior Research in
Cipla Ltd's proposed offer, worth R1.9bn, according to
Reuters calculations, values Cipla Medpro at around R3.8bn.
This is less than the company's enterprise value of around
R4.4bn, made up of its market capitalisation, debt and certain other
considerations, according to Reuters data. Net debt was around R371m as at
end-June 2012, according to a company statement.
"Cipla, being the supplier of drugs to Cipla Medpro, is
the key driver for the performance of the South African company. Therefore, I
think, they will seek a better offer from Cipla rather than rejecting it,"
said Deepak Malik, analyst at brokerage Emkay Global in Mumbai.
Cipla's director S. Radhakrishnan said no talks had taken
place around the price as it was still doing due diligence. Cipla Medpro
declined to comment.
Cipla Medpro is required to update the stock market every
six weeks about the takeover talks. The company gave an update on January 8
when it said talks were continuing without giving details. The next update is
expected around the last week of February.