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Standard warns on house price slowdown

Johannesburg - The residential property market, as reflected by Standard Bank's property book, slipped into negative territory in real terms in January, the bank said on Tuesday.

The median price recorded a real rate of -1.3%, while the median house price decreased by 2.0% month-on-month, it said.

The median house price is now R568 000.

"We believe that a further slowdown in house prices in the next few quarters is on the cards," said Standard Bank Group [JSE:SBK] property analyst Johan Botha.

The year-on-year (y/y) growth rate increased at a slower rate of 2.3%, compared with 3.6% in December. The most recent peak in the median house price (8.3% y/y) was in September 2010.

Botha said with the economy battling to gain meaningful traction, the high debt levels of households, and a struggling labour market, the residential property market was unlikely to flourish.

"Nonetheless, despite these concerns, the property market can take solace from buoyant consumer spending and the lowest interest rates in more than 30 years," he said.

Low interest rates had improved debt affordability which, together with relatively healthy increases in household wealth, will provide support for the property market.

However, he said there was still negative sentiment.

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