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Scotland: Why banks will relocate

London - Scotland's biggest five banks will relocate to England if Scots vote for independence next week, adding to the economic uncertainties the country faces if it decides to end its 307-year union with the rest of the United Kingdom.

The diminished presence of Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group, which owns Bank of Scotland and Scottish Widows, could be a significant loss given the sector's importance to the Scottish economy.

Three smaller Scottish banks - Clydesdale, which is owned by National Australia Bank, TSB and Tesco Bank, owned by Britain's biggest retailer, - have also said they will relocate in the event of a "yes" vote.

The following outlines the main reasons behind the banks' decisions and the implications for staff and customers.

Reasons for relocation - Moving their registered offices, or legal home, to England will ensure that they retain the Bank of England as a lender of last resort and remain under the control of London-based regulators.

The banks want to avoid having their credit ratings downgraded as a result of no longer having the support of the Bank of England and the so-called "implicit subsidy" that that brings with it.

That backing was starkly illustrated during the 2008 financial crisis when RBS and Lloyds were bailed out at a cost of £66bn ($107bn) to British taxpayers leaving the government with a stake of 84% in RBS and 41% in Lloyds.

Ratings agency Standard & Poor's has warned an independent Scotland would be unable to credibly support its banks if a new financial crisis struck. The country's banks have assets worth nearly 12-and-a-half times the size of its economic output.

RBS and Lloyds would face downgrades to their credit ratings if they stayed in Scotland, ramping up their cost of borrowing. Both banks had warned that Scottish independence would impact their funding, tax and compliance costs.

Jobs - RBS and Lloyds have said their operations and staff in Scotland would not be significantly affected and industry sources familiar with the matter say job cuts arising as a direct consequence of the move would be small.

Lloyds, which owns Bank of Scotland and Scottish Widows, currently employs 16 000 staff in Scotland while RBS employs 11 500.

RBS chief executive Ross McEwan told staff that moving the bank's registered offices did not mean it would cut jobs in Scotland or move operations out of the region and would not affect its day-to-day operations.

"This is a technical procedure regarding the location of our registered head office. It is not an intention to move operations or jobs," McEwan said in a memo to staff seen by Reuters.

Costs - Sanford Bernstein analyst Chirantan Barua said the cost of relocating could come in at between £500m and £1bn for both banks.

Ownership of government stakes - Moving registered offices would not alter the status of the government's stakes in both RBS and Lloyds which would remain under London's control, regardless of the outcome of the vote, according to banking and political sources. Any change to the ownership would need to be negotiated between the UK and Scottish governments.

Government share sales - Moving registered offices to London would make it easier for the government to undertake future share sales as the banks are more attractive to investors benefiting from the Bank of England's support.

A "yes" vote would make further sales of the government's stake in Lloyds more difficult because of the uncertainty created, according to industry sources.

A "no" vote, on the other hand, could lead to a "relief rally" that could enable London to sell more of its remaining 25% shareholding having already sold off a 13.5% stake in the past year. Lloyds has returned to profit and the British government has already started selling down its stake.

A sale of the government's shares in RBS is already seen as being three to five years away and the uncertainty would make a more immediate sale less likely. The bank made a loss of £8.2bn last year due to restructuring costs and misconduct charges.

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