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SA maize output could be 39% down

Johannesburg - South Africa, the largest maize producer on the continent, may harvest 39% less of the grain in the 2015 to 2016 season than a year earlier after the country suffered the lowest rainfall since records began because of the global El Nino weather pattern.

Growers will probably produce 6.1 million metric tons of corn in the season, according to the median estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That’s down from the 9.9 million tons in the previous season expected by the nation’s Crop Estimates Committee.

The range of forecasts was 5.5 million to 7.5 million tons in the survey carried out before the estimates panel is due to release its first production outlook for 2015 to 2016 on January 27.

South Africa probably sowed maize on 4 million acres this season ending April 2016, 37% less than farmers had planned, the median estimate of six of the analysts showed. The country planted 2.65 million hectares the previous year.

Prices for white maize, used to make pap, rose to a record January 18 as dry weather hurt supply. South Africa will probably need to import about 5 million tons of corn in the year to April 2017 as the Free State and North West, producers of 64% of 2014’s crop, lacked rain, according to Grain SA, the biggest farm lobby.

Farmers may cut their wheat production estimate by 0.3% to 1.495 million tons this season, according to the median of four of the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

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