ARE Gwede Mantashe's days as secretary-general of the ANC numbered?
That's the question following the fallout over the booing of an ANC delegation at last week's South African Communist Party (SACP) congress in Polokwane.
Mantashe, who is also chairperson of the SACP, was chairing the session when the booing happened.
At face value, the argument that followed is a function of two points of tension: anger around the treatment of the ANC delegation, and the dual role Mantashe plays in the two organisations. But the issue goes much deeper.
There are elements in the ANC who feel Mantashe's two hats are tantamount to an outsider running their movement.
This came to a head at the recent summit of the ANC/SACP/Cosatu alliance, when a document was produced calling for a change in ANC leadership of the alliance.
Many of the ANC delegates only saw the document for the first time at the summit, even though they are represented in the secretariat. It's not incidental that their representative is Mantashe.
In addition to Mantashe, the alliance secretariat is led by other staunch communists - SACP general-secretary Blade Nzimande and Cosatu secretary-general Zwelinzima Vavi.
Even President Jacob Zuma was allegedly surprised by the document and asked who had authored it.
A story is told that before the events of Polokwane in 2007, where Mantashe was elected to the position in the ANC, he was approached by Fikile Mbalula who asked him to put together a candidate list for the coalition against Thabo Mbeki.
The heckling hook
The word is that Mantashe's candidacy was endorsed only after he indicated he would resign from his SACP position. This has not happened.
Instead, the group that has issues with his dual role sees him as the person being used by Nzimande to ensure SACP policies are endorsed within the ANC.
These concerns were muted until the issue of the election of new leaders in 2012 became public a few months ago, with Mbalula named as the man destined to replace Mantashe.
Mbalula is said to be angry that Mantashe failed to honour his word. But there was a problem: how to attack Mantashe without being seen as taking on the man unfairly.
The group needed an issue, a hook on which a serious campaign to unseat him would be hitched. Enter the SACP delegates in Polokwane, who booed ANC Youth League president Julius Malema and two other NEC members, Billy Masethla and Tony Yengeni.
Those delegates, who may have been infuriated by Malema's attack on both Nzimande (when he called him a false communist who drank red wine) and Jeremy Cronin (who was called a white messiah), gave the anti-communist grouping gunning for Mantashe in particular the opening they needed.
Malema walked through the crack opened by these delegates and unleashed a torrent of insults and indignation at the manner in which he had been treated and how, importantly, Mantashe had failed to provide protection before denying him a right to speak.
How far can the SACP go?
What followed was a week in which the partnership of the SACP and the ANC has been tested to the limit.
Nzimande failed to even attend an NEC meeting called to discuss the issue. Mantashe was removed from addressing the media after the NEC conference, a duty assumed by deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe.
The SACP seems to have realised its mistake and has toned down its rhetoric. And indeed, it needs to.
What is at stake is much more than just a spat - it is about the extent to which the SACP will be allowed by non-communists within the ANC to influence ANC economic policy.
With some 96 000 members, and seemingly unwilling to enter electoral politics on its own, the SACP has relegated itself to a lobby group within the ANC. It cannot afford to lose that strategic position. So, insulting Malema will have to stop.
Mantashe may well ditch the SACP position to ensure the more strategic relationship - and his own pivotal role as ANC secretary-general - is protected.
The question is whether the Malema-Mbalula entente, having found its opening, will sweet talk a reconciliation or if it will keep the enmity going to ensure Mantashe's departure.
The first public engagement that will give an indication of this will be the ANC statement and birthday celebration in Kimberley on January 8.
Nzimande could meet meet his match here in the booing stakes, or it might be the place where the hatchet is buried - for now. Whatever happens there will determine Mantashe's future role too.
- Fin24.com