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Dear Alec, re: Eskom – must I spell it out for you?

From Peter Loudon, a long-time member of the Biznews community.

Dear Alec

I hope you’re well.

I have been silent for a while mainly because of a comment you made a while back along the lines of your having been generally positive about South Africa apart from a dip of a few months last year.

That dip appeared to coincide with a period when I was telling you about various aspects of my own negativity.

As I have said before, yours is the last smile I would seek to erase, so I have kept my opinions to other, limited, circles. I even complemented City Power on their initial results achieved by load reduction this week (and received an apology).

Your commentary this week about the Nomura observation about them being concerned about us (South Africans) not panicking about Eskom has brought me out of my self imposed silence.

On the one hand, how is our situation different from that of the passengers in the doomed German Wings aeroplane? Our pilot is locked in an impregnable cockpit and has the country aimed at destruction. He is accelerating.

On the other, those of us who are not apathetic have made pragmatic plans to stay alive (generators), to emigrate, or to do both. I imagine some are also doing a Bill Cosby (standing on the wing flapping their arms and hoping to take off).

Many are also trying to make a difference despite the government. I for one have recently become involved in a novel education model that combines abled and disabled students and deliberately ignores the government because it’s input is toxic.

Whilst I support your call for government to open their minds to obvious solutions (or give way to a government that will), I don’t support the implied call to panic.

South Africans of all races are pragmatic. Panic doesn’t accelerate the implementation of pragmatic solutions. We are losing investment and skills, mine among them in the medium term. The country, as a geographic entity, will undoubtedly get worse before it gets better. There is already violence and loss of life attributable to government failures. Populist measures and tax raids can be expected to increase.

But if I panic, I will surely delay the implementation of my own plans to contribute what I can and get my handicapped son to a stable country in an orderly way.

Nomura has stated the obvious. We are not an attractive investment destination. Our pilot is on his own insane mission in an impregnable cockpit. The impact on our currency of the inevitable junk downgrade of our sovereign debt may even be seen as the equivalent of being locked into the pressurized hull of an aeroplane at speed and altitude.

But we don’t panic because some of us are dealing with it (and some are too dumb to believe it’s happening).

Regards

Peter

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