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Cape Town - Economic growth in the Western Cape has come to a standstill, according to economists.co.za economist Mike Schüssler, the compiler of Sake24 and BoE Private Clients’ Western Cape Barometer.
Massive state expenditure has slowed for now, but growth is still seen in the sectors for property, business and financial services, as well as in the commercial sector.
Sectors in decline are agriculture and construction, as well as manufacturing which, although showing growth year on year, has been treading water for the past three months or so.
The Western Cape Barometer’s main index rose 5.6% in September to 108 index points, compared with a year ago. Against the previous month, and in the three months to end-September compared with the previous three months, growth had been only 0.5% and 1.3%.
The barometer's growth index itself rose 6.2% year on year, but month on month it had contracted by 1%, and on a three-month basis showed no movement.
Schüssler attributed this to the slowdown in global economic growth in recent months.
China, for instance, had produced 11% growth in the first quarter of this year, but only 8% in the third quarter.
The Western Cape stress index – which reflects economic stress factors like inflation, interest rates, unemployment and summonses for debt – was almost unchanged and, compared with the previous month and the three-month period fell more than 1%.
Consumers were benefiting from the lower interest rates, but the only issue preventing the stress index from coming down was unemployment.
Schüssler pointed out that third-quarter unemployment in the Western Cape was 23.1%, as against 22.2% a year ago. As a percentage of the total number of adults in the province, 51% had jobs in the third quarter compared with 53.1% the year before. This looked relatively good compared with the 40.5% of adults in employment countrywide. The number of people with work in the Western Cape was currently 1.754m, against 1.79m a year ago.
Lisa Brown, an economist at Western Cape trade promotion agency Wesgro, confirmed that in recent months there had been definite growth in the service industries, especially in communications, business and financial services. Over the past year these sectors had also enjoyed most of the direct foreign investment, which characterises the Western Cape economy. The services sector was still the biggest contributor to provincial GDP, said Brown.
With regard to the slump in the agricultural sector, Brown said agricultural output had been impacted by lower commodity prices, lower production prices and the strong rand.
- Sake24
For business news in Afrikaans, go to Sake24.com.
Massive state expenditure has slowed for now, but growth is still seen in the sectors for property, business and financial services, as well as in the commercial sector.
Sectors in decline are agriculture and construction, as well as manufacturing which, although showing growth year on year, has been treading water for the past three months or so.
The Western Cape Barometer’s main index rose 5.6% in September to 108 index points, compared with a year ago. Against the previous month, and in the three months to end-September compared with the previous three months, growth had been only 0.5% and 1.3%.
The barometer's growth index itself rose 6.2% year on year, but month on month it had contracted by 1%, and on a three-month basis showed no movement.
Schüssler attributed this to the slowdown in global economic growth in recent months.
China, for instance, had produced 11% growth in the first quarter of this year, but only 8% in the third quarter.
The Western Cape stress index – which reflects economic stress factors like inflation, interest rates, unemployment and summonses for debt – was almost unchanged and, compared with the previous month and the three-month period fell more than 1%.
Consumers were benefiting from the lower interest rates, but the only issue preventing the stress index from coming down was unemployment.
Schüssler pointed out that third-quarter unemployment in the Western Cape was 23.1%, as against 22.2% a year ago. As a percentage of the total number of adults in the province, 51% had jobs in the third quarter compared with 53.1% the year before. This looked relatively good compared with the 40.5% of adults in employment countrywide. The number of people with work in the Western Cape was currently 1.754m, against 1.79m a year ago.
Lisa Brown, an economist at Western Cape trade promotion agency Wesgro, confirmed that in recent months there had been definite growth in the service industries, especially in communications, business and financial services. Over the past year these sectors had also enjoyed most of the direct foreign investment, which characterises the Western Cape economy. The services sector was still the biggest contributor to provincial GDP, said Brown.
With regard to the slump in the agricultural sector, Brown said agricultural output had been impacted by lower commodity prices, lower production prices and the strong rand.
- Sake24
For business news in Afrikaans, go to Sake24.com.
For more news on the Sake24/BoE Private Clients barometers, go to www.fin24.com/barometer.
