Johannesburg - While newspapers and magazines have no answer to the challenges posed by digital media, the future of television looks bright.
According to the Genesis Report, a study commissioned by the National Association of Broadcasters, a period of unprecedented expansion lies ahead. Within five years, the report says, South African viewers will have the choice of nearly 200 terrestrial and satellite subscription channels.
But measurement of these new, highly fragmented audiences will be costly - perhaps necessitating a doubling of the 1% SA Advertising Research Foundation (Saarf) levy.
By 2014, as a result of the migration from analogue broadcasting to digital, the number of free-to-air channels could rise from the present four to more than 30; the number of subscription channels could rise to 160, supplied by three or four broadcasters; and the total viewing audience (terrestrial and subscription) is expected to rise to between 10m and 11m.
A major benefit of digital broadcasting is that it uses scarce spectrum more efficiently than analogue, making it possible to accommodate more channels on the same spectrum. There may be more broadcasters, or more channels offered by existing broadcasters. Alternatively, the increased spectrum could be used for more high-definition channels, or for mobile broadcasting, in which case the number of channels would remain at about 20.
Among the subscription services, DStv will remain a strong presence, but it will in all likelihood be joined by One Digital Media (ODM) and WoWTV. Telkom Media remains an unknown factor.
There is expected to be increased penetration of personal video recorders (PVRs), and mobile broadcasting to cellphones via 3G and DVB-H will also grow - though only slowly until more sophisticated handsets are in wide use.
The TV audience will obviously become heavily fragmented, because audience growth will be much slower than the expansion of channels made possible by digital broadcasting.
One of the biggest problems posed by this fragmentation is that of measurement - which is crucial for marketers to plan their advertising. "Measuring channels with low levels of viewership is challenging if sample sizes are too small, and the resulting data is statistically insignificant," the report says.
The situation is further complicated by the increase in time-shift viewing (watching recorded programmes at different times to those of the original broadcast).
"For the first time, the industry will have to deal with serious fragmentation," says Peter McKenzie, CEO of DStv's sales arm, Oracle Air Time Sales (Oats). "Technology is driving change. There will be more pay-TV channels, more regional and community TV services, more video-on-demand, mobile broadcasting, PVR growth and high-definition channels."
DStv has been unhappy with inadequate sample sizes on Saarf's Television Audience Measurement Survey (Tams) for years. Its 5m adult viewers are scattered across 85 channels. But they are represented by a mere 380 people on the current peoplemeter viewing panel.
"We can't use the data," says McKenzie. "One rating point equals 10 people. Only 14 of our channels have prime time ratings of more than 0.4. Some ratings depend on two viewers. One goes to the toilet and we lose half our ratings.
"For an adequate sample size, we need a panel 10 times bigger. This is not affordable or feasible."
DStv has launched its own research programme, DStv-i, based on 4 000 households equipped with a state-of-the-art modem and decoder. After going national next year, its ratings will become Oats currency. With audience ratings guaranteed for the first time, it will lead to an overhaul of antiquated TV buying practices.
Saarf faces the same fragmentation, and needs something similar - but this would require an increase in the levy. Media industry experts say the panel would have to be at least tripled, which would require double the levy. The levy is collected on nonprint advertising, while print media make a direct grant to fund Saarf's media research programme - to the tune of about R80m a year.
"We want to be part of the overall solution," says McKenzie. "People don't buy ads on DStv in isolation. You must be able to compare one channel's audience with another. A common currency is still very important."
- Fin24.com